🎲 Monte Carlo Schedule Risk

Turn three-point estimates into probabilistic completion forecasts — see how likely your deterministic plan really is.

Enter three-point duration estimates (days) for the activities on your critical chain. The simulation runs 5,000 iterations with triangular distributions.

ActivityOptimisticMost LikelyPessimistic
Method: activities are sampled independently from triangular distributions and summed (series chain). Real QSRA also models parallel paths, correlation and merge bias — this tool gives a first-order view. The gap between the deterministic total and P80 is your schedule contingency.

Related